Marion County is located in a zone which will experience damage and injuries in the event of a Richter 7.0+ earthquake with an epicenter located in the New Madrid fault which will have the effect of a Richter 5.5-6.1 earthquake in Indianapolis. While the last major earthquake in the New Madrid fault was in 1811 there have been smaller earthquakes affecting Marion County in 1895 on the New Madrid fault, and in 1899 and 1987 in the Wabash Valley fault. The best estimates of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium indicated a Richter 7.0+ New Madrid earthquake would result in 157 fatalities, 787 serious causalities, and over 78,000 displaced persons in Marion County. Seismologists at the University of Memphis predict and 86% to 97% chance of a major earthquake occurring in the New Madrid zone within the next 50 years.